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Has there been an increase in market cargo volume due to the explosion of multiple shipping routes?
After February of this year, the global capacity of idle container ships has once again exceeded 1 million boxes (20 foot containers). According to new data from Alphaliner, as of October 9th, there were 315 ships with approximately 1.18 million TEUs of idle capacity. Compared to the survey conducted on September 25th, there was a net increase of 44 ships and 233504 TEUs, with idle capacity accounting for 4.3% of the total container capacity, up from 3.4% two weeks ago, This week, the freight rates for each large container (40 foot container) on the US West route have been increased by approximately $100. On November 1st, both European and American routes are planning to significantly increase freight rates.
According to a report by Cailian News Agency, there have been market rumors recently that there have been cabin explosions on multiple routes in the consolidation market, such as the US, East China, and Southeast Asia routes.
It has been learned from multiple sources that there is indeed a trend of price rebound on these routes. Some importers and exporters have stated that there is no space available for the US route by the end of the month. Several industry insiders have stated that although multiple routes have experienced cabin explosions, it is mainly due to the reduction of ship capacity by shipping companies.
The liner companies hope to stabilize next year's (long-term) freight rates, so they have been reducing their capacity and increasing freight rates at the end of the year. "Alphaliner's latest report shows that since the fourth quarter, the number of idle container ships worldwide has skyrocketed again. Some industry insiders further stated that due to the man-made explosion, it is not a real increase in cargo volume. As for the current level of cabin explosion, the industry insider revealed, "It's just a little bit more than normal, not too much
According to reports, in addition to the suspension of shipping companies and cabin shrinkage, there are also reasons for the concentration of demand from cargo owners during the Black Friday shopping festival and Christmas in the United States. In previous years, shipments of Black Friday and Christmas on the US route were mostly during the peak season from July to September. However, this year there may be delays due to shippers watching Black Friday and Christmas consumption, as well as factors such as the presence of express ships departing from Shanghai to the United States.
On the 20th, the Container Freight Index (SCFI) released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange rose 2.93% in a single week, reaching 917.66 points. According to Alphaliner statistics, during the first quarter of the Lunar New Year, the demand for goods was very low. In February, the number of idle container fleets reached 1.68 million TEUs, accounting for 6.4% of the total container capacity at that time.
After the significant idle capacity, the freight rates on the US West route immediately reacted, increasing by about $100 per large container. The market freight rates were between $1400 and $1800, and the shipping company is expected to increase them to $2300 on November 1st. This week, the freight rate per large container on the US East route remained between $2200 and $2400, while the European route remained unchanged at $800 per large container.
Major shipping companies have announced that on November 1st, each large container on the European route will be increased to $1500- $1800 (depending on each company), but it is estimated that the difficulty of the increase will be high, with a maximum short-term increase of $1500.
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